2022 Projected Stats: 155.0 IP, 28 GS, 12-9, 144 K, 62 BB, 4.37 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.2 WAR. Effective Velocity is arguably one of the most widely-believed theories on pitch sequencing and has been featured on MLB Network, SBNation, Fangraphs, and a variety of other mainstream publications in the baseball community. The new values reported would be calculated at 55 feet from home plate instead of 50 feet. Ian Anderson rode an improved changeup and a fastball with more velocity (94.6 mph) to strong results during his age-23 season, and the best should be yet to come. The official probable pitchers page of Major League Baseball including up to the minute stats, preview and ticket information. The days of college pitchers throwing an 85-mph sinker or slider is slowing going away. . Yes, you may increase your pitching velocity by 10mph but that all depends on a large amount varrying factors. At 84 mph, with two-plane movement, Im a little surprised that it doesnt rate better, but it is what it is. He attended The University of Northwestern Ohio and graduated . Exit Velocity & Barrels Expected Statistics Pitch Arsenals Pitch Arsenal Stats Pitch Movement . Ask any player pitching over 90 MPH and theyll tell you just how important an actively engaged core is to a high velocity throw. Just add height, weight, and velocity. But this team has Ryne Stanek, Hctor Neris, Rafael Montero and other relievers that can take over. He's capable of touching triple digits and can sit 96-98 mph regularly with the heater. I used the delta method, following past research from Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman, with my own methodological twists (of course, I take full responsibility for any mistakes or poor decisions I made!). Guardians 2023 starting pitcher projections The final lines are Steamer and ZiPS overall projections for the top five Astros and Guardians starters, and then for their top eight starters. Expert Consensus Ranking (44 of 45 Experts) - Apr 7, 2022. His breaking balls, however, look about average. Size wise I was about the same as your son, I was roughly 6'2" 180 Now Im 6'4" 230 allright that's my 2 centsI'll ttyl Thanks.I would say his mechanics are pretty solid.Just now starting to develop some muscle definition and is on the whey ptotien and so forth. . In this study, the athletes sat in a dark room in front of a screen projected by a 3D projector while wearing active 3D glasses. Multivariate regression analysis was performed. Of my 30, five of the pitchers turned out to be hurt (Baum, Harris, Supak, Alvarado, Ruiz). Was gunned in August 06 then closer to 16. Continue with Recommended Cookies. His mechanics were ok but he was very strong. (I'd have to reread the post). Youll see huge rotations at the hips and legs stretched incredibly wide. "Welcome to Lake Wobegon, where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average. So let's take a look at all the starters whose average fastball velocity in their first start has increased by at least 1.5 MPH versus 2020. In the past weve implemented ordinary least squares regression models to predict throwing velocity off of force plate metrics, but now with a larger sample size we decided to re-run the analysis using some different methods. Mathieu Tremblay, Charles Ttreau, . Every time you throw a fastball, youre making tiny tears in your muscles and they require the right fuel to help them repair.Make sure that you get plenty of protein and a good amount of carbohydrates for energy. 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Exit Velocity 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 Launch Angle. Customize Grid. Submit mailbag questions to [emailprotected] Follow Eno on Twitter @enosarris, https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/02/22182041/209da5ad-4e8e-4a6b-bbef-b9d602c3d30d.mp4, https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/02/22183142/00fb5c06-82eb-4d2f-8d5c-93b4b764a469.mp4, https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/02/23150207/15e80863-0be7-4a85-bf06-3cdcaf35c237.mp4, https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/02/24115227/46f453f9-c544-485d-864d-089f37d6cc41.mp4, https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2023/02/27123238/d8d2e0fe-3143-4f39-b79d-68db3c07a668.mp4. His average fastball velocity of 97.6 mph is the 17th-highest in the game, and his 29 pitches of 100 mph or more places him 10th one spot ahead of Gerrit Cole on the list of pitchers with . You get someone OK in a great pitchers park, or someone that just has an elite pitch and you trust to figure the rest out. If I'm not mistaken, I also believe that Mariano Rivera had a massive jump in velocity at a much older age than 17 while he was in the minors. Last year he raised his average fastball . Hacking The Kinetic Chain: Hitting Is Available For, Anthony Osnacz and Connor White, High Performance, Predicted Velocity Through Jump and Strength Testing, Training for Youth Pitching Velocity: High-Intent Throwing, Rolling Over: How Bottom Hand Supination Affects Bat Path, How the Axe Short Trainer Can Make You A Better Hitter, Youth Baseball Player Development Velocity Aging Curves, an encouraging sign towards managing multicollinearity. Subscribe to The Athletic for in-depth coverage of your favorite players, teams, leagues and clubs. on How are CAT-5, CAT-5e, and CAT-6 Ethernet Different? The fantasy baseball season just ended and before we all hibernate, run the numbers, and produce polished projections, I feel it's important that I put out what I like to call my "rough draft" of February 2022's Top 200 Starting Pitchers when my opinions and thoughts of 2021 are still fresh. If they had less, I created a projection for the missing playing time. . Your height, weight, and velocity General Pitching Topics pitcherman95 April 4, 2012, 9:48pm #1 I'm looking into the effect on velocity by height and weight. Custom Start Date. There's no consensus on why pitchers are throwing harder today, but there are plenty of contributing factors that I think are worth exploring further: Gerrit Cole has been truly brilliant through his first three . with those in their late 30s pitching at the same speed as those just entering the professional game. Great example is of course Billy Wagner, but also junior year, Roger Clemens was only throwing low to mid 80's, and that was at arond 200 lbs. The purpose of this project is to better understand the trunk contributions to baseball pitching velocity by looking at trunk transverse rotational velocity during pitching as well as trunk functional assessments. I don't for a moment believe that a pitcher is done gaining velocity at 17yo. The move to replace Girardi with Rob Thomson has paid immediate dividends as the Phils are 6-0 since the move and are -145 favorites to make it 7-for-7 on Friday night against the Arizona . So if one pitcher threw 2,000 fastballs and another threw 500, the first pitcher's fastball received a lot more weight. The losses of Hunter Stanley, Walker Powell and Ryan Och are a big hit to . As the main use of this research is for projecting prospects, I am less concerned with peak age and decline than with the overall growth of a player during their career. Any specific exercices to strengthen forearm elbow area where he has had tendonitis problems would be appreciated. Make sure that you use a manageable weight to avoid injuring yourself. A 19-year-old league-average pitcher would be a phenom prospect, think of Andrew Painter, whom Steamer projected to be around league average by the end of the 2022 season. Finally, I compared my aging curves with previous prominent research to make sure the overall growth was plausibleit was broadly consistent. Pitching involves so much more than just your arms and shoulders. Younger pitchers are always going to throw harder since, on average, velocity only declines once a pitcher is in the majors. Wells was a sleeper last season and went out and had an uneven season. Theres a new cutter this spring that could be huge. Results: A total of 420 pitchers were included, with a mean pitching velocity of 64 10 mph. But hes also projected for a 95 Location+. According to MLB stats, the changeup makes up 9.5% of all pitches thrown in the big leagues and travels at 83.6 mph, exhibiting the opposite usage pattern as the slider. 1 bullpen arm from a year ago. Bring it back down to throwing at 45' for one minute as a cool down. Replies and comments they make will be collapsed/hidden by default. All the aforementioned independent variables shared a Variance Inflation Factor under 5, which was an encouraging sign towards managing multicollinearity. Methods. Baseball Pitching Velocity Program It is possible to have a better game . On average I'd say if he's done growing he's got about 5 mph left to increase but why would you accept that knowing that some people do better? It's also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and . ?. This process produced an initial aging curve. This chart could change at anytime based on the evolution of the pitcher in the game of baseball. Maximize the distance by throwing the ball between 160-180' for two minutes. This horizontal projectile motion calculator is a tool to solve a particular case of projectile motion, where an object is launched horizontally from an elevated plane. Lins stuff does not have the same reputation as the rest of the top 10, with his velocity reportedly in the upper 80s to lower 90s depending on the source. Some very good points, Uponthemound. He is now 21. They shouldnt be taken as gospel, as they ignore scouting and stuff, and different sampling and methodology choices for producing the aging curves and league difficulty translations impact the ultimate output (assumptions always do, this is unavoidable! Obviously, Strasburg . Im thinking 82-86 mph. Now, Im not suggesting that you start hitting the weights for hours every day and come out of the gym looking like The Rock, but there are a few handy exercises that you can try. We're sorry. We split the data 75/25 into training and test datasets respectively, then we trained a few multi-linear regression models. Note: Probable pitchers as of Friday, April 15, and are subject to change. probable diagnosis or . I missed on Friedrichs, Highberger, Briggs, and Bechina, as well as 2020 signings Brown, Koenig, and Santos. Perfect Game has stated that pitchers approach max velocity around age 17 and they have stats on thousands of kids. Its for this reason that so many people sign themselves and their kids up for online training programs and even specially designed summer camps to improve their pitching velocity. I ended up extrapolating the aging curve from 22 to 31 to ages outside that range, as sample size and selection bias become problematic at younger and older ages (particularly for older ages, most pitchers retire and the survivors tend to be super good, understating aging decline, while at younger ages, there is little data, as most of those players are still in the minor leagues). Pitch Arsenal Pitch-type signatures, by frequency, speed, and break 3D Pitch Tracks 3D pitch viewer Catch Probability As weve collected data through our force plate strength assessment, trainees commonly ask exactly how those physical qualities show up in their sport skill (hitting or pitching). Probable Pitchers. RECOMMENDED READING: Reduce the risk of injury with elbow guards and throwing sleeves. Thats intriguing! Only a handful of sliders in the game had a better Stuff+ last year, and thats the foundation for Brash. Gerrit Cole. Although pitching speed will eventually get you drafted, at the youth baseball level, here is my list from most important things to focus on instead of youth baseball pitching speeds or how hard you're throwing compared to the next guy. If you do anything with music, you know this, and you know that youre going to have to invest in some cables to listen to the audio youre creating or enjoying. Some mature much later. On the command side, the good news is that despite poor command grades and walk rates in the minors, Waldichuk does put his fastball in good locations. Well, the core exercises mentioned above are a good way of improving mobility but also stretching works wonders. I tested many different flavors of the delta method. July. Wood bats generate a lower exit speed than a non-wood bat. Baseball Pitching Velocity Chart from age 8-22+ Age 16. Believe it or not, this extra range can be the difference between a few MPHs. That's the biggest 10-year gain in pitching velocity in the history of baseball. I then averaged the projection with the actual performance, weighted by playing time. Posted on 09/06/2022 by . Projected starting pitcher, opponent (@ refers to a road game), and whether the pitcher is right-handed (R) or left-handed (L). Learn how your comment data is processed. If anything, the 32-year-old is just getting warmed up as he continues to defy age and throw harder each season. Subscribers can now find peak projections for every minor and major league pitcher 29 or under at our Patreon page. Its obviously his best pitch, though a .333 slugging is not elite on a pitch like that, a 22 percent swinging strike rate is pretty good. It then looks at the average change from season one to season two, weighted by some measure of playing time (in this case, total batters faced). For sure, it takes time and dedication, but if you can motivate yourself, youll be surprised at just how much speed you can add to your fastball. During the same date range of Apr 7 - Apr 12, 2022 fastball (four-seam, two-seam, sinker) velocity is actually up from 93.4 MPH in 2021 to. Fujinamis command in Japan was deemed so poor that he was up and down between the majors and minors, and he was also hurt and between the rotation and the bullpen. The fastball is Megills best pitch, so this is an important conversation. Buy Gators Tickets. The top players gained about 5.71 MPH (on average) between the years of their sophomore and junior seasons. Whats the point in being able to pitch a ball at 95 MPH if you cant hit a strike? In fact, the MLB suggests that peak pitching velocity doesn't occur until 26-years-old. Baseball America slotted Beeter the 66th-overall pick in Strength training do's and . Youll see huge rotations at the hips and legs stretched incredibly wide. Hopefully he can strengthen to prevent this from re occurring. Not a whole lot is expected to change here. These exercises are all relevant to baseball and specifically the muscle groups that you need to engage to pitch effectively. It is required that all pitchers purchase the 3X Pitching Velocity Program before starting the 3X Pitching Velocity Program with a 3X Certified Coach. Our in-house models are not intended to tell us, If you have x force plate metrics, you will throw y velocity. Rather, they say, If you have x force plate metrics, we would expect you to throw y velocity, with all other variables equal. This allows trainers to quickly determine whether an athletes actual mound results are out-or underperforming their predicted fastball velocities, therefore allowing us to quickly identify and communicate lowest hanging fruit for a pitchers training. Cole is the team's ace without question, recording . Velocity Gainers. A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle Hard Hit Statcast defines a 'hard-hit ball' as one hit with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher. The problem is commanding those breaking pitches. Probable Pitchers; Search; Visuals; Statistics. The #1 BioMechanics Velocity Training Program. Just add height, weight, and velocity. on 3 Reasons Why Wired Ethernet is Better Than Wi-Fi, Best Speaker Systems For The Bedroom: Set The Mood For Local Sex Hookups, Best Phone Camera For Dating Apps And Social Media, Why Expensive HDMI Cables Are Unnecessary. Out of gas Flamethrowing setup man Josh Staumont had the second-highest average fastball velocity among relievers at 98.2 mph in 2020, helping fuel a 13.0 K/9 rate. However, how can you calculate desire and work ethic? All except below are based on radar readings by the editor. One note on the simple Marcel projection to forecast the missing data: I initially assumed no aging growth, deviating from the original Marcel slightly. The more freely you can open up your body, the more range you can get in your pitching motion. A team's average is the average of every fastball thrown by those pitchers last year, as opposed to just an average of each pitcher's average fastball velocity. Posted on June 7, 2022 Author June 7, 2022 Author The Golden Eagles lost its top two starting pitchers, both 2021 All-Americans, and its No. April 8, 2021. They allow you to rotate naturally when lifting which reduces the risk of injury to the rotator cuff, thats the muscles in and around your shoulder. This is generally a few years later of a peak for ERA and K% relative to most previous research, and perhaps a bit earlier of a peak for BB% (although comparable overall growth). Dont be afraid to reduce your output every now and again in order to focus on control. This helps demonstrate how two similar force plate tests can result in different training recommendations. I'd guess 85 would be a good benchmark next year, but like many have said, there are a lot of factors involved. It seems he was promised a role as a starter, though, as his general manager noted him among the top three already in the rotation before spring began. Youre constantly throwing over the course of a season and if youre only focussing on generating power, youre going to see a decline in accuracy and form. Always make sure that youre training correctly to avoid getting hurt and most importantly, have fun and crush some baseballs. So, if his fastball was a 111 Stuff+ as a reliever, youd expect that to drop down to something like 105 as a starter, now. Could Abreu be that starter? Mobility and flexibility have a huge impact on velocity. Again, remember to train with appropriate weight and dont over-do it. My sample for the aging curves covers all major league pitcher seasons from 1977 (the start of the free agency era) to 2022. White Sox . There's no consensus on why pitchers are throwing harder today, but there are plenty of contributing factors that I think are worth exploring further: Dates have a. Even though he's 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, Koenig doesn't rely so much on velocity. If you can regularly incorporate a range of squats and lunges into your training program, youll see results within a month or so. As many of you who can help out the better! The plan is attired to your body and mind and will help encourage you to progress in various ways. This program has helped tons of pitchers live the dream of throwing 90+mph and signing with a D1 University, getting drafted by a Major League . Indeed, without accounting for selection bias, pitchers appear to decline from the very moment they set foot in the major leagues. Probable starting pitchers for the next 10 days. I also believe, like someone mentioned, that it does have some to do with early bloomers v late bloomers. On the other hand, since average fastball velocity immediately means something, it's worth noting when a pitcher is already enjoying a significant bump. He allowed seven runs in 4.2 innings against the light-hitting Marlins, and the velocity was down even from where it was last season with a fastball that averaged only 90 mph. 2/8/22 Update: Top 200 Starting Pitchers for 2022. Ask any player pitching over 90 MPH and they'll tell you just how important an actively engaged core is to a high velocity throw. A great way to do this is by training alone using some well-positioned pitching targets. How are CAT-5, CAT-5e, and CAT-6 Ethernet Different? After multi- June 7, 2022. Finally, you'll never receive email notifications about content they create or likes they designate for your content. on Are Audiophile Grade Cables Really Worth It? Hit 81mph last year but cruises at 76-79. will be a jr. this year. So, its all about finding the right balance. The 2022 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found at the bottom of the page. Move up to throwing the ball at 90' feet for three minutes. With the change, fantasy owners need to put into perspective historical and current fastball speeds. And on growth being not only height, but muscle mass. 4. Kodai Senga, 30, is the baby, man. Sources. And so refreshing that you're a self-professed "non-guru"! Sweet Spot a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees. Home Blog Blog Article Predicted Velocity Through Jump and Strength Testing. Three pitchers gained velocity in this time: JJ Putz, 95 after 88-91; Heath Bell, 95 after 89-92; and Andrew Brown, 95 after 89-93. . 2022. Good points on physical maturation being reached at different times. Clemson pitching will bring velocity with command to the mound | The Clemson Insider Change up. The delta method looks at the difference in pitcher performance at each age from one season to the next. Is there any way to reasonably project velocity based on given circumstances? Some quick things to note: -The average velocity is in parenthesis next to the % of the pitch thrown. Even though the projections ignore scouting entirely, it is reassuring to see the top projected starting pitching prospects are generally considered to be some of the games best pitching prospects, for the most part (damn you, Shawn Dubin, whom I could have excluded for too many relief appearances, but ultimately decided to keep him in there because he has had a decent chunk of appearances as a starter, too). Injuries happen and guys like Luis Severino (27 2/3 innings from 2019-21) and Jameson Taillon (ankle surgery . Play around with spin and different targets and when you feel comfortable add a bit more power. It remains to be seen whether they can improve their peripherals to match their run-prevention abilities, or whether the reverse will be true. Your; genes, level youre at now, your internal potential, training structure and regime, psychological development, size and the time youre willing to put into perfecting your craft. Last 14 Day Starting Pitcher Velocity Surgers Jun 8, 2022 by Mike Podhorzer June 8, 2022 Pitcher true talent changes more frequently than hitters, and one of the reasons why is because of. I do believe that on average they don't gain a whole lot of velocity after 17 yo. # Days 3 5 7 14. I also do not believe velocity is near over with after age 17. Well get to the good stuff, but the bad stuff is this: Braxton Garrett doesnt have a single pitch that registers as above-average by Stuff+. If he can throw that harder slider with more movement, however, he could take another step forward. Seattle set up a pitching camp near Elon University in North Carolina, where minor league pitching coach Sean McGrath worked previously, and invited 10 pitchers to the camp for a two-month period. Late bloomers will probably increase a lot more after age 17, simply because the age "17" does not signify a stoppage of growth for them. For two minutes, throw the ball at 130'. #MakeThemSwing2023 https://t.co/g3xl692Mf6 pic.twitter.com/rrfT4XHwGO, Chris Langin (@LanginTots13) January 13, 2023. If pitchers had more playing time in season two than in season one, I didnt adjust their numbers at all. But there is more upside for the As starter, as both his four-seam (102) and changeup (111) are above-average by Stuff+. All three were able to max out their throwing in short relief last year, Brown and Putz had been starters in the minors, though Bell was always a reliever. 1. projected pitching velocity; 1 Jul 2022 marley was dead: to begin with quote analysis . The Stuff+ numbers on the pitch almost dont matter at all. You cant get everything you want for a dollar. This bias understates aging growth and overstates aging decline, as luckier players will regress more in season two. Let me see if I can dig up the source which was on this board a year or two ago. Hall may have a reputation for poor command, but he actually located his slider well, and thats huge in a breaking ball league. There is not a reliable way to project the velocity of any individual player. * Use the below axis to select an Exit Velocity and Launch Angle to show results based on similar batted balls. We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. You must be signed in to continue. Download FREE Pitching Charts. This is an application to show those values. Here in the FanGraphs Library, we have many pages devoted to extremely detailed breakdowns of some of our most prominent statistics. Video Search Statcast MLB Network MLB . Eleven high school baseball players (71.98 2.56 inches, 172 17.12 lbs) were asked to throw 15 fastball pitches from a custom . New York Yankees vs. Chicago Cubs: Series Preview. This difference worked out to a 107 percent increase (~0.6 mph on 90 mph pitch) compared to previously reported values. Player will try to incorporate the two drills into this pitch. His Jr year he came out and hit 89 his first start pitching in the 85-87 range. The typical interpretation for Athlete As mound velocity outperforming his predicted velocity was that his throwing skill was outperforming his general physical qualities, and with that in mind his lowest hanging fruit this offseason was improving the physical areas he lacked the most. There are a number of factors that can go into the equation.. Probable starting pitchers for the next 10 days. How to Increase Pitching Velocity. Much depends on whether he is 16 and one day or 16 and 364 days. He is anyway young enough that some velocity growth is a reasonable expectation. 60-yard dash: 6.5-6.8. . This makes it easier to compare prospects with other prospects, and with major leaguers. He gave up a pair of runs, the same as he did against . barring injury and normal maturation and strenghening,what do you think he will be at by end of sr. year. The current model we use to predict pitch velocitythis specific piece talks about using force plate metrics to predict a pitchers fastball velocity; position players data is used to predict bat speedfrom our force plate assessments takes physical qualities in a vacuumabsent any skill, intent, readiness, or any of the many other factors important for a pitcher. medicine ball exercises on our condition drills guide you can check out here, Reduce the risk of injury with elbow guards. I think there was also some activity in Pre-HS forum but it appears that most of the posts between September and December 2004 are missingor I just don't know how to look. Lets look at the per-pitch numbers. Is this normal?? Manage Settings News. Im sure you heard that somewhere, but it definitely wanst from yours truly. projected pitching velocity. Then I have seen guys come into HS as Freshman throwing 84 and worked hard and left throwing 87. When people talk about methods of increasing velocity, they often neglect the need to train actual pitching technique. mlb the show 19 best equipment for pitchers. scissorbill-Welcome to the HSBBW. Mathieu Tremblay, Charles Ttreau, . Some guys have a steady progression in velocity increase, in fact I would say most. Why bother with a cheap phone when you can get a good smartphone camera for a reasonable price? These exercises are all relevant to baseball and specifically the muscle groups that you need to engage to pitch effectively. But the short season combined . A great way to do this is by training alone using some well-positioned. With Lance McCullers Jr. currently hurt and Hunter Brown in the rotation, the team is searching for a starter more than a reliever. Last season, 54 pitchers faced 600+ hitters and recorded an xwOBA better than the .318 league- average. He did not have access to our database, but could have drawn data off the PG website. You can get someone with great stuff that cant put the ball where he wants. Avoid too many fatty foods to stay lean and stay hydrated. Poor fastball command is not necessarily something that is super sticky year to year, so an improvement there would be huge and not entirely unexpected. ET . Typically, Marcel assumes prospects will be league average. . -PO are pickoff attempts and are calculated as a percentage of all . We are currently enrolling students for on-campus classes and scheduling in-person campus tours. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Of course, that is on the professional side of things. Rule Changes Probable Pitchers Starting Lineups Transactions Injury Report World . xFIP is a measure of K%, BB%, and FB%, assuming a league average HR/FB rate. Any ideas here would also be appreciated. by Lucas Kelly. His plus-plus slider is the foundation. These are just ranges based on averages for all youth to professional pitchers. With the data I had available at the time the two ends of the range were absolutely useless and an artifice of the curve fit I selected. Could he take another step forward and unlock some of the strikeout rates he showed in the minor leagues? I guarantee youll be surprised at the position their body has frozen in. My husband is a CHS grad. Comments closed Best Pitching Speed App. . AL-Only. They may have had their seven-game winning streak snapped on . Masahiro Tanaka and Carlos Rodon, for instance, both gained about 1.5 mph when on and lost the same amount . Only 4 days of varsity tryouts and 1 day of fielding and 3 days hitting. The projections apply the well-known Marcel approach to my league equivalencies and aging curves, weighting past performance in 2022, 2021, and 2020, respectively, three to two to one, and applying some light regression to the mean (200 total batters faced, I used a light figure because I am projecting component statistics, K%, BB%, and FB%, that are relatively reliable in small samples).