Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. Political scientists have a term for counties or states that anticipate how the rest of the country will votebellwethers. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. By Cara Ding. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Fannin plans to vote in person and is pretty sure Trump will win a second term, but hes concerned about the integrity of the mail-in ballots. March 3, 2023 Updated: March 3, 2023. In 2020, amid widespread accusations of Democrat cheating, these bellwethers were not even close checking in at a mind-blowing 6%! Myers works as an electrician and long supported the Democratic Party along with his union. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. I trust the system implicitly, he said. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Tom Wolf overstepped his boundaries during the pandemic. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. We need creative leadership, Miller said. Of the 19 bellwether counties that have consistently voted for the presidential winner since 1980, all but one chose Trump, the Journal found, PJ Media reported. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. In both of the missteps, the residents wrongly picked the losing Democrat: Williams Jennings Bryan over President William Taft in 1908 and Adlai Stevenson over President Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. We were as far down to five cooks last year. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Epoch Times: "Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020" Find UFOs, The Apocalypse, New World Order, Political Analysis, Alternative Health, Armageddon, Conspiracies, Prophecies, Spirituality, Home Schooling, Home Mortgages and more, in: Rumor Mill News Reading Room, Current Archive If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Theres too much mishandling, she said. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. I think it worked out without me.. And we just want that to continue. The Upper Mississippi River Valley and it [sic] surrounding area in particular appears to be an epicenter of these high-scoring bellwethers., Teresa Shepherd stands in front of her daughters house in Seelyvilee, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. I think we needed somebody like him.. Here's why. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. He won nineteen-to-twenty bellwether counties. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. Peoples common sense level is cooked. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Most of the jobs up here are part-time or seasonal. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times) By Charlotte. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Rob Portmans seat, Coppeler said. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. But Myers doesnt think Biden is respectful to Trump either. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Our politicians need to look on both sides of the fence and work together. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. I think everyone has the same opinion that things arent good.. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. Data de l'entrada martin county clerk of court jobs; whats wrong secretary kim dramawiki . We need to address the economy and safety and security, Hawker said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. Paul, a 51-year-old resident in Seelyvillejust east of Terre Hautewho also didnt disclose his last name, wont vote either. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. He is just outspoken and doesnt filter what he is saying.. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. I kind of keep in my bubble. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. He said he finds it hard to believe Bidens claim that he never talked to his son Hunter Biden about his deals in Ukraine and China. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. The county, which includes spring and summer destinations such as Kelleys Island, Marblehead, and Put-in-Bay, currently is in hibernation. Theres significant variability among them though. "If. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Just off Interstate 75 at the Pemberville/Bowling Green exit, is Frickers, a popular eatery and gathering place for people of all ages, whereChris Chamberlin ofBowling Green works as the restaurants manager. I dont think you should take that away from me.. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. Its crazy. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Theyre scared. Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. Nestled along Lake Erie in the northwest of the state between Toledo and Cleveland, the area has a population of 40,364, according to the 2020 Census. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. He told The Epoch Times that hes facing workforce shortages and currently only has 18 cookshalf of what he normally would have. It seems that Im having to think about whos lying the least, Myers said. Medicare is becoming a joke. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. Our mission is to put on honest elections.. The Republican has been a big supporter of water quality on Lake Erie, and were looking to get another candidate that sees that as a priority.. Sam said he has noticed that the farmers arent happy, and their kids have to take a side job in the factory because of the economic situation. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? Please read our comments policy before commenting. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Tisdell wanted to find out for himself, so he began to do his own research, reading mainstream news on both sides, as well as reports by independent citizen journalists. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Two states have announced recounts. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Richard Zulch, an Army veteran who served in Vietnam as a combat engineer from 1969 through 1971 and is the quartermaster for Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 4811 in Bowling Green, said he has been able to see the political landscape from both sides of the fence. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about 4 points on average. For example, a county might be said to be a "bellwether county" if it consistently votes the same way as the majority of the state. Your email address will not be published. Its difficult to have a conversation nowadays without really stirring up emotions, and thats probably my main issue, Hamilton told The Epoch Times as he stood in downtown Terre Haute. Jim was awarded the Reed Irvine Accuracy in . This includes personalizing content and advertising. A lot of people think things are. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. March 1, 2023 8:28 PM PT. The voter shift is happening statewide, and despite Democrats having 750,000 more registered voters, Republicans have gained 75,000 since 2016, while Democrats have lost 91,000. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. In the May 3 primary, theres also a mix of familiar names with new candidates on the ballot. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Its been a long time since we were fully staffed with 35 cooks. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. The Epoch Times Thu, 19 Nov 2020 21:41 UTC There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. He considers Trump pro-life. All the negativity, and just pure anger for this one person in office I have never seen it before. Its horrible. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. I think all politicians are crooks. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. Thats a highly Democratic area, but people see whats going on and theyre not happy, Sam said. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County in New Mexico. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Given the global context of Russias invasion of Ukraine, they believe higher gas prices and inflation is coming, and theyre not happy about it. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. But as for America, I feel he would do the best job.. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. Logistics are a nightmare, Miller said. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat of Elk County. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. People need to get a job, get out and work. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Youre not getting anybody perfect. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Its gone, Jacobs said. Their fear is real, mine is. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. This claim is basically absurd. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. These counties also disproportionately came from the Midwest and the Northeast. This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. Bernard Grofman University of California, Irvine However, in the 2020 primary election, more Democrats had turned out to vote3,413 to 2,598 Republicans, usually an indicator of how the presidential election is going to go, party officials believe. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. He didnt vote in 2016 either. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. We need election reform.. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. There isnt anything I can do to change it or to make it better by voting.. If riots break out in our area and we dont have firearms, how are we going to protect our family and ourselves?. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Republican Gov. Logistically, its a disaster. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. I hope.. Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in Texas (San Antonio) has had only one miss since 1928 (preferring the Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968). A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. And its never going to come back.. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time.